Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
