Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
