🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still