Daily Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The average figure of everyday murders each month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh official statistics. However, public safety experts have warned that murder figures may not point to better countrywide safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security experts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is notably true considering the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it may obscure periods when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.